In the aftermath of the horrible crime that was committed in Aurora, Colorado, some have questioned whether the crime could have been prevented or otherwise averted.
Incidentally, I prefer the word “crime”, because that’s what happened in the theater that night – a crime. While the results of it are certainly tragic, I find it difficult to use the word “tragedy” when referring to the shooting itself. To me, the word “tragedy” implies a certain element of inevitability, or unavoidability. Hurricanes and tsunamis are tragic. Earthquakes in major cities are tragic. The shooting, allegedly committed by James Eagan Holmes, was a crime. And I think it’s safe to omit the word “allegedly” here, but let’s let the investigation play through. The point is that Holmes could’ve taken a different course of action that night. Presumably he chose to do what he did. If all of this is true, and it’s hard to imagine otherwise, then Holmes is a thug and his actions were criminal. No sense in diluting his responsibility by implying that it was somehow unavoidable. But I digress.
Piyanka Jain is the president of a company called Aryng, a company known for its work with data analytics and forecasting models. Jain wrote an article about the shooting and the potential for predictive analytics, and his company sent it out on the wires. Yahoo News picked it up and posted it under the headline Could Analytics Have Preempted Colorado Theatre Shootout?. It’s very interesting. In the article, Jain points out several things.
But first, another aside – do you ever watch that CBS TV show The Mentalist, with Simon Baker and Robin Tunney? I love that show. Baker plays the main character who’s name is “Patrick Jane”. This reference to the Aryng CEO reminds me of something you’d hear on that show. But I digress once again, where were we?
Oh yes – Jain – not Simon Baker’s “Jane”, but the Aryng CEO – points out several things.
First, predictive analytics are already being used with success in Santa Clara, California. Jain gives an interesting example of how police were present in larger numbers than usual at the scene of a crime, because of the information presented by an application called Predictive Policing, which in this instance, issued a forecast to law enforcement that the probability of a crime taking place at that time at that location was elevated, based on its analysis of previous trends and statistics. The software was correct, the crime began, and police on the spot arrested the suspects.
Jain second point: he’s of the opinion that it’s theoretically possible that the Aurora, Colorado shooting could’ve been forecast as well.
I don’t think Jain is saying that someone fell down on the job, that’s not the message here. The point is that the technology is “here”, and can enable these sorts of possibilities. It’s still relatively new but predictive analytics are probably a lot more mature than most people realize.
Stay tuned.